財務(wù)報表分析與證券價值評估

前言

　　Financial statements are the lens on a business. Financial statement analysis calibrates the lens to bring the business into focus. Imperfections in the financial statements can dirty the lens and distort the picture. Financial statement analysis deals wi

內(nèi)容概要

本書從價值評估的概念框架出發(fā)，系統(tǒng)介紹了財務(wù)報表分析以及企業(yè)基本面分析的相關(guān)內(nèi)容，如財務(wù)報表、權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制會計、財務(wù)報表分析、預(yù)測與價值評估、會計分析與價值評估以及風(fēng)險分析等，從而使讀者能夠通過合理的財務(wù)報表分析理解企業(yè)的價值，并將分析結(jié)果應(yīng)用于實(shí)際的證券投資之中。    本書為英文改編版，作者首先建立了一個概念框架，以幫助讀者理解企業(yè)如何運(yùn)行、如何創(chuàng)造價值以及財務(wù)報表如何反映這些價值，并將企業(yè)運(yùn)行的相關(guān)知識轉(zhuǎn)化為價值評估，使分析建立在合理的基礎(chǔ)之上。并闡述了大量財務(wù)報表分析與投資分析中常用的分析工具，并以著名公司的實(shí)例闡述了這些工具的運(yùn)用。本書中所有的分析都與現(xiàn)代金融的原理一致，并且顯示了對會計本身的質(zhì)量的評價。

作者簡介

Stephen H.Penman，哥倫比亞大學(xué)商學(xué)院George O.May教授和摩根士丹利研究學(xué)者，《會計研究評論》(Review of Accounting Studies)主編。研究領(lǐng)域?yàn)闄?quán)益定價及會計信息在證券分析中的應(yīng)用，1991年獲得美國會計學(xué)會和美國注冊會計師協(xié)會頒發(fā)的會計研究杰出貢獻(xiàn)獎，2001年因本書獲得美國會計學(xué)會和德勤頒發(fā)的Wildman獎。

書籍目錄

List of CasesList of Accounting ClinicsChapter 1  Introduction to Investing and Valuation  Investment Styles and Fundamental Analysis  Bubble, Bubble  The Setting: Investors, Firms, Securities, and Capital Markets  The Business of Analysis: The Professional Analyst  The Analysis of Business  Choosing a Valuation Technology  How to Use this Book  The Web Connection  Key Concepts  A Continuing Case: Kimberly-Clark Corporation  Concept Questions  Exercises  MinicaseChapter 2  Introduction to the Financial StatementsPART ONE  FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND VALUATION  Chapter 3  How Financial Statements Are Used in Valuation  Chapter 4  Cash Accounting,Accrual Accounting,and Discounted Cash Flow Valuation  Chapter 5  Accrual Accounting and Valuation:Pricing Book Values  Chapter 6  Accrual Accounting and Valuation:Pricing EarningsPART TWO  THE ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS  Chapter 7  Business Activities and Financial Statements  Chapter 8  The Analysis of the Statement of Shareholders'Equity  Chapter 9  The Analysis of the Balance Sheet and Income Statement  Chapter 10  The Analysis of the Cash Flow Statement  Chapter 11  The Analysis of Profitability  Chapter 12  The Analysis of Growth and Sustainable EarningsPART THREE  FORECASTING AND VALUATION ANALYSIS  Chapter 13  The Value of Operations and the Evaluation of Enterprise Price-to-Book Ratios and Price-Earnings Ratios  Chapter 14  Simple Forecasting and Simple Valuation  Chapter 15  Full-Information Forecasting,Valuation,and Business Strategy AnalysisPART FOUR  ACCOUNTING ANALYSIS AND VALUATION  Chapter 16  Creating Accounting Value and Economic Value  Chapter 17  Analysis of the Quality of Financial StatementsPART FIVE  THE ANALYSIS OF RISK  Chapter 18  The Analysis of Equity Risk and the Cost of Capital  Chapter 19  The Analysis of Credit RiskAppendixA Summary of FormulasIndex

章節(jié)摘錄

　　VALUE-AT-RISK PROFILING　　In Figure 18.1 risk was depicted as a distribution ofpossible return outcomes. Each possible return implies a valuation-how much the investor would be willing to pay for that return-so risk can also be depicted as a distribution of values. Plotting that distribution of values-depicting how value might differ from expected value-prepares a value-at-risk profile.　　Cast back to the full-information， pro forma financial statement forecasting in Chap-ter 15. Following the template laid out there， we forecasted operating income and net operating assets for the simple firm PPE Inc. and， from the forecasts， calculated forecasted residual operating income. We then converted these forecasts to a valuation. The pro forma financial statements that we prepared were based on expected sales， profit margins， and turnovers. But expected values are averages of a whole range of possible outcomes and the distribution of outcomes determines the risk of the investment. Value-at-risk profiles are developed by preparing pro forma financial statements for each possible outcome and then calculating the values for each outcome.　　To develop value-at-risk profiles， follow the five steps outlined next.　　1.Identfy economic factors that will affect the risk drivers in Figure 18.3. Like valuation more generally， identifying these factors requires "knowing the business." Consider airlines. What factors affect airlines' profits? General economic conditions affect asset turnover risk since airlines sell fewer tickets at lower prices on fixed capacity in reces-sions than in boom times. Airlines are subject to shocks in oil prices， affecting expense risk. Airlines are subject to changes in government regulation， afFecting growth risk. Airlines are subject to price challenges from competitors and new entrants to the in-dustry， affecting RNOA and growth risk.　　2.Identfy risk protection mechanisms in place within the firm. An airline may hedge oil prices to reduce the effects of oil price shocks. Currency risk may be hedged. Incorpo-ration is a risk-protection device to limit liability. The investigation of risk exposures is part of knowing the business. Indeed， the aspects of business that are exposed to risk really define the business. If a gold company hedges its gold reserves against changes in the price of gold， it creates a gofd mining business （with risk in production costs） rather than a gold mining and trading business （with risk in　roduction costs and sale prices）. If a downstream oil company hedges oil prices， an investor should realize that she is buying a firm that is more like a marketing company than an oil company.　　A firm hedging currency risk has decided that it is not in the business of trading curren-cies. If a firm hedges all risks， the investor is buying an investment that is more like the risk-free asset than an equity.　　Disclosure is important to the discovery of risk exposure. Look at the derivatives and financial instrument disclosures. Examine the management discussion and analy-sis. Just as poor disclosure frustrates the identification of operating assets （what busi-ness the firm really is in）， so poor disclosure frustrates discovery of risk exposures. A manager seeking to maximize the market value of the firm indicates clearly what type of business the firm is in and so attracts investors who seek the risk and returns to that type of business. If she fails to disclose exposures， she imposes disclosure risk on the investor.　　……

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